Did Secretariat Really Win
the Belmont by 31 Lengths?

Posted May 22, 2009
By Profitus Maximus

To question the margin of victory of Secretariat’s 31 length triumph in the Belmont Stakes in June of 1973, officially documented to have been won by 31 lengths, might seem blasphemous, like saying that Wilt Chamberlin never scored 100 points but rather 95, or that Ted Williams only batted .399 instead of .406 in 1941.

Secretariat

Secretariat is probably the greatest thoroughbred ever to set foot on a track in North America. Only Man o’ War’s exploits merit any comparison. Horse racing historians will generally only dare mention the legendary Man o War in the same breath as Secretariat.

The world record setting 2:24 is one of the most untouchable records in sports, and this aspect of Secretariat’s astonishing Belmont Stakes performance is not in question and remains as hallowed a feat as ever in all of sports.

Andrew Beyer has even assigned an estimated 138 Beyer Speed Figure to that performance, the highest ever assigned to a thoroughbred performance, a figure which may very well be accurate. I would certainly not dispute anyone who cared to assert that it was the greatest performance of all time by a thoroughbred. I don’t think any horse in the world at any time, including Man o War would’ve beaten Secretariat on that day.

Though it is almost universally accepted in the horse racing world that the margin of victory is 31 lengths, but after watching Big Red cross the finish line something didn’t seem right. A review of the video footage suggests that the margin may actually be closer to 25 lengths.

Granted it is easier to tell the difference between 5 lengths and 10 lengths than it is 25 lengths and 31 lengths, but it just didn’t seem like it was 31 lengths. I was sure it was just my imperfect perception but I decided to see if I could confirm the accepted fact out of curiosity.

It is a commonly accepted precept in handicapping that 1 length = 1/5 of a second, but at the finish line of any race, it is usually closer to .17 seconds per length. This can vary depending on how fast they are going at the end, but .17 is a decent rule of thumb.

I hand timed the difference between the time Secretariat crossed the wire to the time the second place horse Twice a Prince crossed the wire several times and came up with about 4.20 sec, which is about 25 lengths. Even race caller Chick Anderson at first called the winning margin as 25 lengths, (though a minute later he did say “I said 25, it could conceivably be more”).

I certainly did not want to be right. I like the idea of my favorite horse winning by a record margin, but unfortunately my stopwatch revealed that it might not be so.

Compare this to the 20 1/4 length victory that Rachel Alexandra registered in winning the Kentucky Oaks on May 1, 2009. A stopwatch will show that the time elapsed from when Rachel Alexandra crossed the wire to the time the runner up Stone Legacy crossed the wire is approximately 3.50 seconds.

Assuming Rachel Alexandra’s margin of victory is correct, then that translates to .17 seconds per length. This suggests that the time elapsed between Secretariats finish and the runner up should be about 31 x .17 = 5.27 seconds.

Another way to look at it is that the time elapsed from Secretariat and Twice a Prince verses Rachel Alexandra and Stone Legacy was .70 seconds greater, which is about 4 lengths.This indicates that Secretariat’s margin over Twice a Prince was more likely closer to 25 lengths than to 31.

At any rate, the official margin will likely never be challenged, and I really have no desire to see it changed, but the true horse racing buff might be interested in noting the results of this little investigation.