A day after her Santa Anita Oaks win, Stardom Bound is now likely to point for the Ashland Stakes and then Kentucky Oaks rather than take on the boys in the Santa Anita Derby and then in the Kentucky Derby.
I think this path is definitely the wiser decision.
According to my GHR Speed Figures, Stardom Bound’s last two efforts have been really on the light side. In fact, if she were to be entered in the Kentucky Derby this year off the strength of her consecutive wins in the Las Virgenes and Santa Anita Oaks, I would place her at 100-1 odds to take down the likes of Old Fashioned, The Pamplemousse, and I Want Revenge.
I was willing to excuse her light Las Virgenes Beyer Speed Figure of 85, as it was the first off of an almost 3-month layoff, and my GHR Speed Figures told me her Breeders Cup Juvenile win was at least a few lengths stronger, so I gave her the benefit of the doubt, thinking that being in Bobby Frankel’s capable hands, he would have her much improved for the Santa Anita Oaks.
That did not happen. She just barely eked out a win in the Santa Anita Oaks over what seemed to be fairly light competition, and in addition, my GHR Speed Figures show that she just did not improve much off her Las Virgenes win. In fact her Beyer Speed Figure for the Santa Anita Oaks was a moderate 87, hardly Kentucky Derby material.
Watch Stardom Bound in the Santa Anita Oaks (March 7, 2009)
In order for her to be taken seriously as a Kentucky Derby candidate, she needed to improve at least three or four lengths from her Breeders Cup win by March of 2009, and she in fact seems to have run weaker races, or at best run races no better than her championship win.
She won her 1-1/16 mile Breeders Cup race is about the same time as did Midshipman, the Juvenile Male Champion did the following afternoon, and my GHR Speed Figures show that the tracks on the day Stardom Bound ran (October 24) and Midshipman ran (October 25) were playing about the same, both a little on the fast side.
But as handicappers know, the speed of the racing surface can vary throughout the day for various reasons, and it is possible that for some reason, the surface over which she won her Juvenile Championship race was playing relatively faster than the other races on that day, which would make her performance a little weaker than either I or Andy Beyer and company had originally calculated.
At this point, unless she shows a marked improvement in the Ashland Stakes at Keeneland, which is expected to be her next start, I couldn’t even put her as a lock to win the Kentucky Oaks against her fellow fillies.
One of the reasons that her trainer Bobby Frankel is so successful is that he not only knows how to have his horses fit and ready to run, he also wisely chooses the spots they are suited for.
He knows that at this point Stardom Bound is not ready.
