One of the Best Strategies of Horse Betting: Never Bet the 2/5 Shot to WinOne of the best strategies of horse betting is to never bet the 2/5 Shot to Win. In Saturday's Donn Handicap at Gulfstream Park, Quality Road decimated the field at 1/2 odds, breaking his own track record for 1 1/8 miles. He won by over 12 lengths. Needless to say, he was much the best.
But the aim of this piece is not to extol the superb abilities of this talented animal, but rather to provide a betting lesson which is a follow up to an article Never Bet the 1/5 Shot to Win
As the result chart below shows, a $2 win bet on Quality Road would have returned $2.80, or equivalently, 40 cents profit for every dollar bet on him.
A strong opinion about two or three horses most likely to come in second can significantly increase your return by placing an Exacta bet instead of a win bet. The following exactas were shown on the exacta payout matrix at the close of the betting period. Quality Road / Dry Martini (4/5) = approx $7.90 profit per $1 exacta
Dry Martini finished second, and Delightful Kiss finished third, and Kiss the Kid finished out of the top 4 spots. I liked all three of these to possibly finish second. And this is where the handicapping is finished and the strategies of horse betting part comes in. The total bet was $3 and the total paid out on the Quality Road/ Dry Martini was $8.90, for a net profit of $5.90 which is a 196% return as opposed to the 40% return you would have gotten had you bet on Quality Road to win. It is true that the horses most likely to finish second must be determined but if a couple that seem to have much less of a chance can be elminated, the exacta is the smarter return on investment vs. the straight win. If you follow this and other strategies of horse betting in the Street Sense section, your return should gradually improve. From Strategies of Horse Betting Back to Street Sense
|
