Trifecta Wagering Strategies – Don’t Bet Unnecessary Combinations

By Profitus Maximus

It is no wonder that trifecta wagering is a high risk high return bet given the large number of potential outcomes in a race. However, the efficiency of the bet and hence your long term return on investment (ROI) can be improved by avoiding unlikely combinations.

Regular horseplayers know that the trifecta is a wager in which they are required to select not only the top three finishers of a race, but to select them in the correct order, and that the number of possible combinations increases exponentially as the field size increases.

One of the keys in playing the trifecta, therefore, is to avoid falling into the trap of playing too many combinations. It is particularly easy for the online bettor or horseplayer using one of the automated betting terminals at the track to get carried away by pushing too many buttons and thereby playing a large number combinations. Be careful - even on a $1 bet, the total can add up quickly.

The greater number of entrants in a race, the greater the potential number of outcomes. In a 10 horse race, for example, there are exactly 720 combinations from which a bettor can choose.

In a 10 horse field, suppose the bettor settles on 2 possible winners, 5 possible second place horses, and 8 possible third place finishers, the total cost on a $1 ticket is $48 (48 combinations at a cost of $1 each). The ticket would end up looking something like this:

A,B / A,B,C,D,E / A,B,C,D,E,F,G,H

This represents the 48 combinations the bettor has selected of a possible 720. The question the bettor now has to ask himself is: Do I really want to bet on each and every one of those combinations?

In trifecta wagering, a useful horse racing handicapping tip is for the bettor is to break apart all trifecta combinations and analyze each one individually. It might be helpful to layout either on paper or in a spreadsheet each individual combination on 48 lines (or rows if you are using a spreadsheet). It does require some extra time and effort, but generally the bettor will find combinations that he would not ordinarily play were he to place individual $1 bets. This exercise compels the bettor to restructure his bet by eliminating those combinations that are less likely.

To illustrate the point, suppose the bettor has come to the following conclusions about the race:

• horse A is a frontrunner that has a decent chance to win but only if he is left alone on the lead and is able to set a moderate or even slower than average pace
• horse F is a deep closer that comes from far back and might have a shot at getting third, but only if he has a faster than average pace in which to close

In this case, if the pace is too fast, F may close into third but A will fade. If the pace is very slow, A might steal the race in which case F may not have enough pace in front of him that will help his chances of closing into third.

It might be prudent then to avoid all combinations in which horse A wins and horse F gets third. That is, avoid all tickets that look like this:

A / B,C,D,E / F

which accounts for 4 combinations you might not bet if considered on an individual basis, and thereby reduces the cost of your trifecta ticket from $48 to $44.

Let’s say this trifecta is hit and pays $75. The difference in ROI from a $44 ticket compared to a $48 ticket is a 14% improvement!

Check back soon for more trifecta wagering tips.